2015 Alberta general election


2015 Alberta general election


The 2015 Alberta general election was held on May 5, following a request of Premier Jim Prentice to the Lieutenant Governor of Alberta Donald Ethell to dissolve the Legislative Assembly on April 7. This election elected members to the 29th Alberta Legislature. It was only the fourth time in provincial history that saw a change of governing party, and was the last provincial election for both the Alberta Progressive Conservative and Wildrose parties, which merged in 2017 to form the United Conservative Party (although each ran a token candidate in the 2019 election).

The provincial Election Act fixed the election date to a three-month period between March 1 and May 31 in the fourth calendar year after the preceding election day – in this case, April 23, 2012. However, the act does not affect the powers of the Lieutenant Governor to dissolve the Legislature before this period.

As a result of the election, the Alberta New Democratic Party (NDP) were elected to a majority government under leader Rachel Notley. The NDP formed government for the first time in Alberta history since the NDP's founding in the early 1960s.

The 2015 election is sometimes called the "Orange Chinook", a reference to the province's dramatic swing to the NDP, the NDP's orange colour and the weather shifts occasioned by strong Chinook winds that southern Alberta commonly experiences.

The NDP win ousted the PCs, who were reduced to third place in seats. Prentice resigned as PC leader and MLA for Calgary-Foothills on election night.

The Progressive Conservatives (PCs) had a majority in the outgoing Assembly and had won every provincial election since the 1971 election, making them the longest-serving provincial government in Canadian history – being in office for 44 years. This was only the fourth change of governing party in Alberta since becoming a province in 1905, and one of the worst defeats a provincial government has suffered in Canada. 31 PC MLAs lost re-election to the legislature, the largest number in one election in Alberta history. It also marked the first time in almost 80 years that a left-of-centre political party had formed government in Alberta since the defeat of the United Farmers of Alberta in 1935 and the Depression-era radical monetary reform policies of William Aberhart's Social Credit government.

The Wildrose Party under leader Brian Jean remained the Official Opposition, gaining four seats since 2012 despite winning 81,814 fewer votes and a 10.1% lower share of the popular vote than in the previous election. The Alberta Liberal Party and Alberta Party each won a single seat with Alberta Party leader Greg Clark becoming the party's first MLA. The Alberta Liberal Party lost four seats, only returning interim leader David Swann to the Legislative Assembly.

Following the election, Notley and her cabinet were sworn in on May 24.

Overall, across the province, 1,488,248 valid votes were cast in this election.

Background

In the 2012 general election the PCs lost a portion of their caucus, but were able to continue as majority government, despite their share of the popular vote decreasing to under 50%. The Wildrose Party formed the official opposition for the first time, while the other two parties in the Assembly, the Alberta Liberal Party and Alberta New Democratic Party (NDP), both held official party status with five and four seats respectively. On September 4, 2014, the PCs became the longest serving political dynasty in Canadian history, at 43 years, 5 days.

Prentice, who succeeded former premier and interim leader of the Progressive Conservatives Dave Hancock in September 2014, was not obligated to call an election until 2016. However, seeking a new mandate to pass his budget, he asked Lieutenant Governor Donald Ethell to dissolve the legislature on April 7. In accordance with Canadian constitutional practice, Ethell granted the request, beginning a month long campaign. The early election call was criticized by some as unethical, as it violated the fixed election dates specified in the Elections Act, but it was constitutionally valid and followed the general practice of the reserve powers of the Crown, specifically the constitutional convention of following the advice of the premier.

Results

The NDP received the most votes (more votes than any other party) overall and in 54 districts (more than half the districts), though did not receive a majority of the vote overall nor in many districts. It received 40.6 percent of the vote and captured 62 percent of the seats in the Legislature.

Due to First-past-the-post voting, the NDP swept the Edmonton seats, won a majority of the seats in Calgary and just less than half of seats in rural Alberta. NDP MLAs were elected in all 21 Edmonton districts, 15 of the 26 Calgary districts and 18 of the 40 districts outside the major cities.

NDP candidates received over 50% of the votes in each Edmonton riding as well as the ridings of Sherwood Park, St. Albert and Lethbridge-West. All opposition (non-NDP) candidates received less than half the votes in the riding where they ran, except for the Wildrose candidates in Cypress-Medicine Hat, Strathmore-Brooks and Olds-Disbury, each of whom captured a majority of the district votes.

The election produced some very close races and small leads for some winning candidates. In Calgary Glenmore the winning candidate won with a lead of six votes over her leading contender. In Calgary McCall an NDP candidate won with less than 30 percent of the vote; in Calgary Shaw an NDP candidate won with but 31 percent of the vote; in Calgary South-East a PC won with only 32.5 percent of the votes cast.

In many ridings the combined votes of the Progressive Conservative and the Wildrose candidates surpassed that of the NDP.

In some ridings such as Red Deer North, Spruce Grove-St. Albert, Calgary-Buffalo, Calgary-Varsity, Lethbridge East and Lethbridge West, the combined vote of the NDP and the Liberal candidates totalled more than 50 percent of the district's votes, thus overwhelming the combined vote of the Conservative and Wild Rose candidate. This also held true for Calgary Mountain View where a Liberal was elected.

In many ridings no Liberal ran, which probably aided the NDP victory in those ridings. These included Lesser Slave Lake, Peace River, Edmonton-McClung, Sherwood Park, West Yellowhead and Whitecourt.

* The total popular vote includes votes from voided Calgary-Foothills election.
** Incumbent Premier Jim Prentice disclaimed his victory in Calgary-Foothills. According to section 139 of the Alberta Elections Act, if a winning candidate disclaims their right to become an MLA before the end of the appeal period for the official results, that riding's election is declared void.

The election resulted in a majority government led by the New Democratic Party.

The result in Calgary-Glenmore remained unresolved on election night, as incumbent PC MLA Linda Johnson and NDP challenger Anam Kazim finished the vote count in an exact tie of 7,015 votes each, necessitating a recount process. On May 15, the recount determined NDP candidate Anam Kazim won the riding by six votes.

The Alberta NDP had been leading in most polls since late April. They had been expected to do well in Edmonton, which historically had been more favourable to centre-left parties and candidates than Alberta in general. However, in a result that exceeded even the most optimistic projections for the NDP, Edmonton swung dramatically to support Notley, who represents an Edmonton riding. The NDP took every seat in the city, all by very large margins (4,000 votes or more with absolute majority support). The NDP also won 15 of the 25 seats in Calgary, the power base of the PCs for most of the previous four decades. The NDP also swept the province's third and fourth-largest cities, Lethbridge and Red Deer. NDP support remained relatively lower in rural Alberta, where they won only a handful of ridings in the north of the province, as well as some rural ridings around Edmonton.

Notley later said that she had known a week before the election that the NDP would win. She told the Canadian Press that she had been sitting in a hotel room in either Calgary or Lethbridge when she saw a very credible poll showing the NDP was poised to rebound from a mere four seats in the legislature – the minimum for official party status – to an outright majority. She was stunned at first, but recovered long enough to drop her plans for a whirlwind schedule to close out the campaign. Her original plan would have not only resulted in her looking extremely haggard in her first speech as premier-elect, but would have left her without time to begin a transition.

The PCs finished second in the popular vote, 53,099 votes ahead of the Wildrose. However, their caucus was decimated due to a near-total collapse in the major cities, as well as a more pronounced split in the right-of-centre vote. They were completely shut out in Edmonton, Lethbridge, and Red Deer, and lost 12 of their 20 seats in Calgary. Since the first-past-the-post system awards seats solely on the basis of plurality district contests (not by proportional representation), the PCs were knocked down to third place with 10 seats, and only two outside Calgary. This was further reduced to nine when Prentice disclaimed victory in his riding. The PCs were reduced to their smallest presence in the Legislative Assembly since 1967. With a few exceptions, their support in the cities transferred to the NDP, while their rural support moved to the Wildrose. All but three members of Prentice's cabinet were defeated.

The Wildrose had its legislative caucus greatly reduced in 2014 when then-leader and Leader of the Official Opposition Danielle Smith and all but 5 Wildrose MLAs crossed the floor to sit with the governing PCs. In the 2015 general election, the party rebounded to 21 seats and retained Official Opposition status. All of their gains were in rural ridings taken from the PCs, and they failed to win a seat in Edmonton or Calgary.

Greg Clark, leader of the Alberta Party, won the first ever seat for his party in the Legislative Assembly. He won the seat of Calgary-Elbow.

For the first time the NDP won a majority of seats in Calgary, taking 15 of the city's 26 seats. This centre-left success was deepened by a Liberal candidate and an Alberta Party candidate also scoring wins in that city. Such had not happened since 1921, when Labour candidates and Independents took seats there.

Results by riding

Bold indicates cabinet members, and party leaders are italicized. Candidate names appear as they appeared on the ballot.

Colour band in gulley indictes winner of the election.

All results are sourced from Elections Alberta.

Northern Alberta

Central Edmonton

Suburban Edmonton

West Central Alberta

East Central Alberta

Central Calgary

Suburban Calgary

Southern Alberta

Defeated incumbents

MLAs who did not run again

Progressive Conservative
  • Rob Anderson, Airdrie
  • Wayne Cao, Calgary-Fort
  • Cal Dallas, Red Deer-South
  • Alana DeLong, Calgary-Bow
  • Yvonne Fritz, Calgary-Cross
  • Hector Goudreau, Dunvegan-Central Peace-Notley
  • Jason Hale, Strathmore-Brooks
  • Fred Horne, Edmonton-Rutherford
  • Mary Anne Jablonski, Red Deer-North
  • Genia Leskiw, Bonnyville-Cold Lake
  • Donna Kennedy-Glans, Calgary-Varsity
  • Bridget Pastoor, Lethbridge-East
  • Bruce Rowe, Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills
  • Danielle Smith, Highwood
Wildrose
  • Heather Forsyth, Calgary-Fish Creek
  • Shayne Saskiw, Lac La Biche-St. Paul-Two Hills
Liberal
  • Kent Hehr, Calgary-Buffalo
  • Darshan Kang, Calgary-McCall
  • Raj Sherman, Edmonton-Meadowlark
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Timeline

2012

  • April 23: The Progressive Conservative Association of Alberta (PCs) win the 28th Alberta general election. The Wildrose Party wins the second-most seats, for the first time forming the Official Opposition.
  • May 3:The election results are certified and made official.
  • May 23: The 28th Alberta Legislative Assembly sits for the first time.

2013

  • May 14: The Separation Party of Alberta changes its name back to the Alberta First Party name it abandoned in 2004.
  • May 14: Edmonton-Manning PC MLA Peter Sandhu resigns from the PC caucus, becoming an Independent.
  • July 16: Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo PC MLA Mike Allen quits the PC caucus after being arrested in the US on a soliciting for prostitution charge.
  • December 10: Edmonton-Manning Independent MLA Peter Sandhu rejoins the PC caucus.

2014

  • March 12: After an expense scandal involving Premier Redford's trip to the funeral of Nelson Mandela, Calgary-Foothills PC MLA Len Webber leaves the PC caucus to sit as an Independent.
  • March 17: Calgary-Varsity PC MLA and Associate Minister for Electricity and Renewable Energy Donna Kennedy-Glans leaves the PC caucus to sit as an Independent.
  • March 20: Alison Redford resigns as leader of the PCs, and Dave Hancock is named interim leader.
  • March 23: Redford's resignation as Premier comes into effect and Deputy Premier and Edmonton-Whitemud MLA Dave Hancock is sworn in as Premier.
  • April 29: An NDP leadership election is initiated when leader Brian Mason announces his pending resignation as leader.
  • July 7: Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo Independent MLA Mike Allen is admitted back into the PC caucus after a caucus vote.
  • August 6: PC MLA Alison Redford resigns her Calgary-Elbow seat, triggering a by-election.
  • September 6: In the Progressive Conservative Association of Alberta leadership election, former federal cabinet minister Jim Prentice is elected leader.
  • September 15: Dave Hancock resigns as Premier and his Edmonton-Whitemud seat, triggering a by-election. Jim Prentice is sworn in as premier.
  • September 17: Calgary-Varsity Independent MLA Donna Kennedy-Glans requests, and is accepted back into, the PC caucus.
  • September 29: Independent MLA Len Webber resigns his Calgary-Foothills seat, PC MLA Ken Hughes resigns his Calgary-West seat, and by-elections are called in their ridings as well as Calgary-Elbow and Edmonton-Whitemud.
  • October 18: At the Alberta NDP convention Rachel Notley is chosen party leader.
  • October 27: Four PC MLAs are elected in by-elections: Gordon Dirks in Calgary-Elbow, Jim Prentice in Calgary-Foothills, Mike Ellis in Calgary-West, and Stephen Mandel in Edmonton-Whitemud.
  • November 2: Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre Wildrose MLA Joe Anglin leaves the Wildrose caucus to sit as an Independent.
  • November 24: Innisfail-Sylvan Lake MLA Kerry Towle and Little Bow MLA Ian Donovan leave the Wildrose Party and join the PCs.
  • December 17: Nine Wildrose Party MLAs, including leader Danielle Smith and House Leader Rob Anderson cross the floor to join the PCs.
  • December 21: Heather Forsyth is named interim leader of the Wildrose Party.

2015

  • January 26: Raj Sherman resigns as leader of the Alberta Liberal Party, and PC MLA Doug Griffiths resigns from his Battle River-Wainwright seat.
  • January 31: PC MLA Doug Horner resigns his Spruce Grove-St. Albert seat.
  • February 1: David Swann is named interim leader of the Alberta Liberal Party.
  • March 26: Premier Jim Prentice tables his government's 2015-16 budget.
  • March 28: Former Conservative MP Brian Jean wins Wildrose Party leadership election, former Wildrose Party leader Danielle Smith loses PC nomination in Highwood to Okotoks councilor Carrie Fischer
  • April 7: Premier Jim Prentice drops the writ, calling for an election on May 5, 2015.
  • April 23: Televised leaders' debate.
  • May 5: Election results - the NDP win a majority of seats (53), and the Wildrose finish second with 21 seats. The Progressive Conservatives' run of nearly 44 years as government ends with a third-place finish of 10 seats. Premier Prentice announces resignation as PC leader and as Calgary-Foothills MLA. The initial result in Calgary-Glenmore is a tie.
  • May 15: Elections Alberta publishes the official result. NDP candidate Anam Kazim wins the riding of Calgary-Glenmore after recount, leaving the NDP holding 54 of 87 seats in the legislature.

Opinion polls

The following is a summary of published polls of voter intentions.

Media endorsements

The following media outlets endorsed the Progressive Conservatives during the campaign:

  • Calgary Herald (Postmedia)
  • Calgary Sun (Postmedia)
  • The Globe and Mail (The Woodbridge Company, majority owned by Thomson Reuters)
  • Edmonton Journal (Postmedia)
  • Edmonton Sun (Postmedia)

No media endorsements were made for any of the other parties.

Footnotes

References

References

Works cited

External links

  • Elections Alberta


Text submitted to CC-BY-SA license. Source: 2015 Alberta general election by Wikipedia (Historical)




 

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