2023 Thai general election

General elections were held in Thailand on 14 May 2023 to elect 500 members of the House of Representatives. The Move Forward Party, led by Pita Limjaroenrat, surprised analysts by winning the most seats, followed by fellow opposition party Pheu Thai who had won the most seats in the 2011 and 2019 elections. Turnout was a record 75.22%.

The elections were held using a parallel voting system as in the 1997 and 2007 constitutions, in contrast to the mixed-member apportionment system used in 2019. Like in 2019, the elected prime minister did not need to be a member of the House and would be chosen by the full National Assembly, including the 250 military-appointed members of the Senate, for a total 376 seat majority. Due to the structure of the National Assembly, experts had warned of a possible gridlock scenario in which the current opposition parties secure more than half of the House votes but are obstructed in the Senate. Additionally, the Election Commission had received criticism over untrustworthiness, unprofessionalism, and bias in its conducting of the voting process.

Sixty-seven parties vied for seats. The ruling conservative coalition government was composed of the major Palang Pracharath, Bhumjai Thai, and Democrat parties, and smaller parties including the new United Thai Nation Party, who nominated former junta leader and incumbent prime minister Prayut Chan-o-cha after his split with Palang Pracharath. The pro-democratic opposition was led by the Pheu Thai and Move Forward parties, the latter being the effective successor of the dissolved Future Forward Party, which had performed unexpectedly well in the 2019 election. Political campaigns focused on the Thai economy, especially its recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Some parties, most notably Move Forward, also highlighted progressive issues, and challenged long-held social norms in Thailand.

Pita's Move Forward initially formed a coalition with the other pro-democracy, anti-military parties, which had a majority in the lower house but was unable to form a government after being functionally blocked by allies of the monarchy and military in the Senate. Pheu Thai then assumed the lead, dissolving its alliance with Move Forward and allying instead with conservative, pro-military parties. It then nominated real estate tycoon Srettha Thavisin as prime minister. He was elected by Parliament on 22 August.

Background

Following a political crisis in Thailand, the military staged a coup d'état in 2014, ousting the civilian caretaker government of Yingluck Shinawatra. The military junta, known as the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO), rose to power under the leadership of former army chief Prayut Chan-o-cha as Prime Minister. In 2016, the NCPO completed the drafting of a new constitution and held a referendum to approve it. They banned criticism of the draft constitution and prohibited monitoring of the referendum. Activists against the document were arrested, detained, and prosecuted in military courts, whilst voters who expressed their intention to vote against the draft were also arrested and prosecuted by the military regime.

In 2019, after numerous delays, the junta finally held a general election on 24 March. The elections were seen as a skewed race in which Prayut had an unfair advantage, with the Senate wholly appointed by the junta and the constituencies redrawn last-minute. After the election, the pro-junta Palang Pracharath party formed a coalition government, with Prayut selected by the parliament for another term as prime minister even though his party did not win the most seats.

Prayut began his second term as prime minister on 9 June 2019. According to the current constitution, a prime minister can only serve for a maximum of eight years. However, the end of Prayut's term as the prime minister of Thailand is disputed since there are many interpretations about the beginning of his term. On 30 September 2022, the Constitutional Court finally ruled that Prayut's term began in 2017 along with the new constitution, meaning that he may serve as the prime minister until 2025, if he is selected by the parliament again.

The 2020–2021 nationwide protests started as demonstrations against the premiership of Prayuth but later expanded to include numerous long-overlooked issues in Thai society, and unprecedented demands to reform the monarchy. The Thai royal family is protected by a lèse-majesté law. Even though the protests largely died down due to crackdown, repression, and COVID-19 restrictions, it was anticipated that activism could resurge in this election and afterwards.

The end of 2022 saw the split in the ruling Palang Pracharath Party between Prayut and his close associate Prawit Wongsuwon, after the latter showed accommodation towards the main opposition Pheu Thai Party. Prayut was expected to join the new United Thai Nation Party along with his loyalists in the Palang Pracharath Party. Forty politicians, including 34 incumbent MPs from both coalition and opposition camps, also resigned from their parties to join Bhumjai Thai Party to increase their winning chances in this election. On 23 December 2022, Prayut announced his intention to apply for membership of the United Thai Nation Party, as well as becoming the party's sole prime ministerial candidate.

Rumor of a possible coup was circulated long before the election. In September 2022, a cabinet minister, Chaiwut Thanakamanusorn, warned that protesting may result in the cancellation of the election.

Electoral system

Unlike the preceding 2019 election, which used a form of mixed-member proportional representation with 350 constituency seats and the remaining 150 being levelling seats, the electoral system was changed in a 2021 amendment of the constitution which restored the pre-2017 parallel voting system and removed the proportional representation mechanism.

Of the 500 members of the House of Representatives to be elected, 400 seats are elected from single-member constituencies by first-past-the-post voting (an increase of 50), and 100 party-list seats—filled separately and no longer serving as leveling seats—are voted on in a separate ballot (unlike in the 2019 election, where only one vote was cast by each voter to determine both constituency and levelling seats). The change was criticised by smaller parties as the system benefits larger parties—especially the ruling Palang Pracharath Party and the main opposition party Pheu Thai, who both supported the amendment—at the expense of smaller ones, including the progressive Move Forward Party, whose predecessor Future Forward performed successfully in 2019 thanks to the proportional representation system.

Prime ministerial candidates

The process of selecting a prime minister is still the same as the preceding 2019 election under the 2017 Thai constitution. Prime ministers may only be chosen from a pre-declared list of candidates. Each party may submit up to three names and must have at least 25 members in the House of Representatives to receive eligibility. Candidates do not have to be a member of parliament (MP).

Parliament's vote for prime minister will take place in a joint session with the 250-seat Senate appointed by the junta, according to the constitution's provisional terms. In 2019, all the senators unanimously voted for then-junta leader Prayut. As the term of the NCPO-appointed Senate lasts until 2024, it is expected to exert influence into this election as well.

Due to this rule, the anti-junta camp had to secure at least 376 votes in order to select their candidates, while a simple majority in the House could still result in a candidate from the pro-junta coalition winning the selection. If no candidates secured at least 376 votes in the Parliament, it could lead to a deadlock and pave the way for a person not in the parties' list of candidates becoming prime minister as written in the Constitution. Such a scenario led some to call for strategic voting for larger anti-junta parties most likely to win in each constituency.

2022 reapportionment and redistricting

Due to the increase of the number of members of the House of Representatives elected from single-member constituencies from 350 to 400, a reapportionment of seats and redrawing of electoral boundaries was required. On 1 February 2022, the Election Commission announced its calculations that, from the total registered population of 66,171,439 as of 31 December 2021, there must be 1 member per 165,429 people. This distribution is subject to the approval of the organic law bills currently being considered by the National Assembly.

The provisional number of members of the House of Representatives to be elected from single-member constituencies in each province are as follows:

The Election Commission had just finished drawing electoral boundaries in February 2023—just three months before the election, while many candidates had already begun campaigning. The original drawing was challenged in the Constitutional Court as the Commission included non-citizens in the calculation. The Court struck down the drawing, prompting the Commission to revise and present another boundary drawing. The second drawing was also challenged in the administrative courts amid the accusation of gerrymandering by the Commission, but the court eventually ruled the drawing was legal in April 2023.

Leading up to the election

Since late 2022, ex-politician Chuwit Kamolvisit began attacking Prayut whose relative was allegedly linked to Chinese nationals involving drug, gambling and money laundering. He later turned to Bhumjai Thai Party, accusing it of corruption regarding Orange Line rapid transit planning and promoting unrestricted use of marijuana.

In January 2023, two youth political activists began a hunger strike calling for the release of political prisoners detained before trial. Many of them were charged with lèse-majesté, which led to another debate on amending or cancellation of the law. Political parties were asked for their stance on the issue.

Beginning in January 2023, many civil society organizations called for volunteers to keep their eyes on the election process, citing the untrustworthiness of the Election Commission and its decision not to report the election result in real-time. As of March 2023, the movement had grown to 50 organizations, including media, who declared they would report the unofficial election result when the Commission would not.

On 20 March 2023, the House of Representatives was dissolved—three days before the term ended. Due to a legal technicality, the election date was postponed for another week from 7 May 2023. The move also allowed politicians more time to switch parties, which many analysts interpreted as the real motive behind it. Some commentators also noticed that the election day was set during the period of university exams and after a long holiday which could make voting inconvenient for a lot of Thais who have to return to vote in their constituencies.

In March 2023, a group of hackers posted the personal data of 55 million Thais for sale online. The group called 9Near with a symbol resembling that of the Move Forward Party, also mentioned on their page: "Almost election, choose wisely."

In May, ex-prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra tweeted that he was ready to return to Thailand before July 2023 and "enter the legal process". He faced possible prison time from prior convictions.

The Thai economy was still recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic, but it was still struggling with multiple issues, including high energy and electricity costs, the number of employers still fewer than before the pandemic, rising household debts, and falling income growth. Other economic issues such as minimum wage, farm subsidies, and welfare were considered top voting issues. Most political parties campaigned on subsidies and tax exemptions.

Contesting parties

A total of 67 political parties applied to participate in the elections by party list system, of which 49 party numbers are selected by lottery and then in order of the application period.

Overseas and advanced voting

More than 2 million Thais registered for advance voting, while other 100,000 people registered to vote from overseas. Thailand's Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported that around 80% of the eligible overseas voters had done so. Even with high temperatures, some districts still expected a 90% turnout.

The Election Commission's conduct of advance voting drew sharp criticism from the public, especially from numerous cases of incorrect information on ballot envelops. Chuvit Kamolvisit also pointed out irregularities in some Northeastern provinces where unusually high number of voters voted in advance and there were reports of collection of ID cards. More than a million people also signed an online petition to oust the Election Commission.

Opinion polls

Preferred party

Preferred Prime Minister

Exit polls

Results

Final results were announced on 25 May. The Election Commission endorsed all 500 MPs on 20 June; 67 parties won seats. While there were media reports that 71 MPs-elect in 37 constituencies received election fraud complaints, the commission decided to endorse all the MPs-elect to avoid rushing investigations. They have up to one year to investigate complaints after receiving them.

Results by province

Analysis

The Move Forward Party won the most seats with 151, including sweeping all but one of Bangkok's seats, outperforming another opposition party, Pheu Thai, which was considered the frontrunner. Analysts saw this as a significant political shift, and Move Forward supporters called the results a "wind of change" and the "dawn of a new era". This also broke Pheu Thai's run of being the party with the most MPs since 2001 (including its predecessors, the People's Power Party and Thai Rak Thai Party).

The two main parties connected to the former military junta, the Palang Pracharath Party and its split-off United Thai Nation Party lost half their seats compared to Palang Pracharath's result in 2019. The Democrat Party, a junior coalition partner, also lost over half its seats. Bhumjai Thai was the only coalition party which gained seats in this election.

Analysts were surprised at Move Forward's performance. It was attributed to a desire for change, dissatisfaction of the Prayuth premiership, and a reluctance to vote for the formerly dominant Pheu Thai. Move Forward's distinctive commitment to reforming the country's lèse-majesté law could also have been an issue that influenced voters. Napon Jatusripitak, a Thai political scientist at the ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute, opined that this election indexed a readiness in the country to transcend past political divides and to instead focus on structural reforms "concerning the role of traditional power centers in Thailand".

Government formation

Move Forward–led coalition

Move Forward leader Pita Limjaroenrat announced a six-party alliance with four former opposition parties—Pheu Thai, Thai Sang Thai, Prachachat and the Thai Liberal Party—and one new party, the Fair Party. The coalition would include 310 MPs, more than enough for a majority government in the House of Representatives. It later grew to eight parties (with Pheu Thai Ruam Palang and the New Social Power Party joining), accounting to 313 MPs. On 22 May, the eight parties signed a historic memorandum of understanding listing 23 policies they agreed on, including restoration of democracy, enacting marriage equality law, and reformation of the security and justice system. However, the issue of lèse-majesté was left out.

Pita needed 376 votes from the complete National Assembly to be voted prime minister. Due to the foreseeable gridlock that no senators would vote for a Pita premiership, some started to see Bhumjai Thai, which finished third in the election, a "kingmaker" and allying itself with Move Forward–led coalition, but during campaigning its leader Anutin had ruled out an alliance with parties that seek to reform the lèse-majesté law. Some senators said that they would not automatically vote for Pita, while stating that they had the country's best interests at heart; however, 15 senators were reportedly gearing to back his bid to be prime minister. Civil society also began pressuring senators to vote for Pita, and, on 23 May, organized a rally near the parliament.

Apart from the full parliament prime minister vote, there was much anxiety of a possible dissolution of the Move Forward party or court rulings against it — the same fate as its predecessor, the Future Forward party. Pita was also accused of owning shares in ITV, a de-listed television broadcaster since 2008, which could disqualify him from being an MP. After the election, there was a conflict between Move Forward and Pheu Thai over the House speaker seat. Some self-proclaimed Pheu Thai supporters also urged their party to leave the Move Forward–led coalition. Rumors that Pheu Thai could join the old coalition parties from before the election persisted. The Royal Thai Armed Forces pledged to respect the results of the general election and not launch a coup.

On 3 July, the new parliament was opened by King Rama X, and the coalition agreed to Wan Muhamad Noor Matha of the Prachachat Party to be nominated as speaker, paving the way for government formation. Wan previously served as Speaker from 1996 to 2000.

On 13 July, the government formation was blocked, as Pita's coalition failed to gain the requisite 375 votes in parliament. While 324 members of parliament voted in favor, 182 voted against and 199 abstained. Most of the junta-appointed senators refused to endorse Pita for Prime Minister, leading to protest and criticism.

On 19 July, the National Assembly convened for a second time to elect a new prime minister. That day, the Constitutional Court unanimously voted to accept a case against Pita regarding his inherited shares of the defunct iTV. They also voted 7–2 to suspend him from MP duty until it reached a ruling, though this did not preclude him from being nominated for prime minister. In the subsequent debate, the National Assembly voted against considering him for another round of voting for prime minister. His renomination was argued to have been against a parliamentary rule prohibiting a repeat motion. In the voting for his renomination, 312 voters supported, 394 rejected—most of which were senators—eight abstained and one did not vote. The decision to prohibit renominations was controversial, with critics arguing that it was unconstitutional. Many complaints were filed to the Office of the Ombudsman, which on 24 July agreed to forward the case to the Constitutional Court. This led to further prime ministerial voting being postponed by Parliament; the next vote had originally been scheduled for 27 July.

Pheu Thai–led coalition

After Move Forward's attempts were blocked, the opportunity to lead the government formation was passed on to Pheu Thai, who were expected to nominate Srettha Thavisin to be prime minister. As part of Pheu Thai's attempts to form a government, talks were held with many of the conservative and/or pro-junta parties, who insisted that they would not support any coalition including Move Forward due to its policy on amending the lèse-majesté laws. This, coupled with an announcement that exiled former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra would return to Thailand, fueled speculations of a deal with outgoing coalition parties that would see Pheu Thai abandoning the coalition with Move Forward.

On 2 August, Pheu Thai announced that it was leaving the eight-party coalition and would attempt to form a new coalition that excludes Move Forward, with Srettha as the candidate for prime minister. On 3 August, the Constitutional Court announced that its decision on Pita's renomination would be made on 16 August. In response, the PM vote, scheduled for 4 August, was again postponed to 22 August.

On 7 August, Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai announced an alliance that would try to form a new coalition government. They were joined by six parties—Prachachart, Pheu Thai Ruam Palang, Chart Pattana Kla, Thai Liberal, New Social Power, and the Party of Thai Counties—on 9 August, followed by Chart Thai Pattana on 10 August, bringing their total to 238 MPs, which is less than the initial opposition coalition but which was seen as more favorable to the conservative military establishment in the Senate.

On 16 August, the Constitutional Court dismissed the petitions on Pita's renomination, stating that the plaintiff was not the directly affected party, clearing the way for a new round of prime ministerial voting. An eleven-party coalition was announced on 21 August, including the aforementioned parties along with the military-associated parties United Thai Nation and Palang Pracharath for a total of 314 MPs. Pheu Thai's alliance with the military parties was controversial among many voters, including some of its own supporters, as its leaders had promised not to join with them before the election.

A poll published by NIDA the day prior showed that around 64% of those surveyed opposed Pheu Thai allying with military-backed parties. On 22 August at 9 am Bangkok time, Thaksin returned to Thailand and landed at Don Mueang International Airport, following 15 years of self-imposed exile, and was promptly sent to court and then prison to begin serving an eight-year sentence for his outstanding corruption convictions. Hours later, he was transferred to the Police General Hospital, which prompted accusations of special treatment. On 31 August, outgoing Justice Minister Wissanu Krea-ngam confirmed that Thaksin had requested a royal pardon, and on 1 September the Royal Gazette announced the King had commuted his sentence to one year.

On the evening of 22 August, the day of Thaksin's arrival, Srettha Thavisin was elected with 482 votes for, 165 votes against, with 81 abstentions. On 23 August, the King formally endorsed Srettha to become the 30th Prime Minister of Thailand. The endorsement document was posted on the Royal Gazette's website. At the event, Srettha also gave his first speech as prime minister. His cabinet was sworn in on 5 September.

The protracted government formation led to a further issue: Move Forward had now become the largest opposition party, but one of its MPs, Padipat Suntiphada, had already been elected deputy house speaker by the eight-party coalition. Constitutionally, the opposition leader could not be from the same party as a speaker or deputy speaker. As a result, Move Forward strategically expelled Padipat so that the leadership of the opposition could be taken by its new leader Chaithawat Tulathon. Government parties criticized the expulsion as an undignified political gambit that would in practice keep both positions in Move Forward's control, while Padipat insisted he would not act as Move Forward's nominee.

Notes

References

External links

• Bangkok Post election-related news
• Khaosod English election-related news