Next German federal election

The next German federal election will be held on or before 26 October 2025 to elect the members of the 21st Bundestag.

Date

The Basic Law and the Federal Election Act provide that federal elections must be held on a Sunday or on a national holiday no earlier than 46 and no later than 48 months after the first sitting of a Bundestag, unless the Bundestag is dissolved earlier. The 20th and sitting Bundestag held its first sitting on 26 October 2021. Therefore, the next election has to take place on one of the following possible dates:

The exact date will be determined by the president of Germany in due course. Federal elections can be held earlier if the president of Germany dissolves the Bundestag and schedules a snap election. They may only do so under two possible scenarios described by the Basic Law.

1. If the Bundestag fails to elect a chancellor with an absolute majority of its members on the 15th day after the first ballot of a chancellor's election, the president is free to either appoint the candidate who received a plurality of votes as chancellor or to dissolve the Bundestag (in accordance with Article 63, Section 4 of the Basic Law).
2. If the chancellor loses a confidence motion, they may ask the president to dissolve the Bundestag. The president is free to grant or to deny the chancellor's request (in accordance with Article 68 of the Basic Law).

In both cases, federal elections would have to take place on a Sunday or national holiday no later than 60 days after the dissolution. Under both scenarios, a snap election is not possible during a state of defence. Federal elections can also be held later, if a state of defence is declared. If a state of defence prohibits a scheduled federal election and prolongs a legislative period, new elections have to take place no later than six months after the end of the state of defence.

Changes to electoral system

After the 2021 German federal election produced a Bundestag with 736 members – which made it the largest freely elected parliament in the world – renewed debate began over the system of awarding overhang and leveling seats in place since the 2013 election. The Scholz cabinet passed a reform law in March 2023 to fix the size of future Bundestags at 630 members. This is achieved by eliminating all overhang and leveling seats, as well as the constituency seat rule (Grundmandatsklausel) which awards full proportional representation to parties winning at least three constituency seats, even if they do not meet the five-percent threshold. Under the new legislation, a party's total number of seats will be determined solely by its share of party-list votes (Zweitstimmen). If a party wins more constituency seats in a state than it is proportionally entitled to in that state, it will only be awarded the amount of constituency seats it is proportionally entitled to; a number of its constituency winners would be excluded from the Bundestag, in order of those that received the smallest vote shares. Parties representing minority groups are still exempt from the five-percent threshold.

The law is subject to constitutional challenges; the CSU and The Left, both of whom benefitted from the previous system at the 2021 election, appealed to President Frank-Walter Steinmeier to refuse to sign it, though he did so after personally determining he believed it was constitutional. Immediately after the law was promulgated in the Federal Law Journal on 13 June, both party organizations, as well as the government of Bavaria controlled by the CSU, filed formal complaints to the Federal Constitutional Court. Hearings were held on 23 and 24 April, and a final decision on the constitutionality of the law is expected within a few months.

On 14 March 2024 a law entered into force changing the boundaries of the Bundestag constituencies. As a result of the 2023 electoral reform, the number of constituencies would remain at 299, but with Bavaria gaining one constituency (Memmingen – Unterallgäu), while Saxony-Anhalt consequently lost one constituency (Anhalt). Lübbenau was also moved from Dahme-Spreewald – Teltow-Fläming III to Elbe-Elster – Oberspreewald-Lausitz in order to comply with population requirements. Minor adjustments were made to two Thuringian constituencies to align with new municipal boundaries, while 14 further constituencies were redescribed or renamed, but without changing their boundaries.

Political parties and leaders

The table below lists the parties represented in the 20th Bundestag.

Opinion polls

Notes

References