Next Australian federal election

The next Australian federal election will be held on or before 27 September 2025 to elect members of the 48th Parliament of Australia. All 150 seats in the House of Representatives and likely 40 of the 76 seats in the Senate will be contested. It is expected that at this election, the Labor government of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will be seeking re-election to a second term in office, opposed by the Liberal/National Coalition under Leader of the Opposition Peter Dutton.

Background

Previous election

At the previous election in May 2022, the Labor Party, led by Anthony Albanese, formed government after nine years in opposition, winning 77 seats in the House of Representatives, enough for a two-seat majority. The Liberal–National Coalition that had previously governed won only 58 seats and went into opposition. Meanwhile, the crossbench, made up of other parties and independents, expanded to 16 seats; four held by the Greens, one each by Centre Alliance and Katter's Australian Party and the remaining 10 by independents.

In the Senate, Labor made no gains and remained steady at 26 seats overall, whilst the Coalition lost some seats and retained only 32 seats. The Greens made gains and increased their share of seats to 12. One Nation also remained steady at 2 seats, Centre Alliance and Rex Patrick Team each lost their sole Senate seat, while the Jacqui Lambie Network gained a second seat. David Pocock was also elected as an independent Senator, while the United Australia Party also gained a Senate seat. This meant Labor required 13 additional votes to pass legislation.

Composition of parliament

The 47th Parliament opened on 26 July 2022. The Liberal Party entered the parliament with a new leader, with former defence and home affairs minister Peter Dutton replacing the outgoing prime minister Scott Morrison.

On 23 December 2022, Nationals MP for Calare Andrew Gee left the party and became an Independent, following the party's decision to publicly oppose an Indigenous Voice to Parliament. This meant that the Crossbench increased to 17 seats with the Coalition decreasing to 57 seats.

On 6 February 2023, Greens Senator Lidia Thorpe resigned from the party to sit as an Independent.

On 1 April 2023, Labor's Mary Doyle won the 2023 Aston by-election following the resignation of sitting Liberal MP Alan Tudge. The result was considered a massive upset and marked the first time that an incumbent government won a seat from the Opposition since the 1920 Kalgoorlie by-election. As a result, Labor increased their number of seats in the House of Representatives to 78, while the Coalition decreased to 56.

In May 2023, incumbent Liberal National MP Stuart Robert resigned, triggering another by-election, this time in the seat of Fadden on the Gold Coast. The seat was won by Liberal National candidate Cameron Caldwell, keeping the composition of the parliament unchanged. Also in May 2023, Dai Le, the independent member for the seat of Fowler in Western Sydney, formed her own political party, the Dai Le and Frank Carbone Network, alongside Frank Carbone, the Mayor of Fairfield. The party will be primarily based in Western Sydney.

On 15 June 2023, Liberal Party Senator David Van was expelled from the party following sexual misconduct allegations by former LNP Senator Amanda Stoker and Independent Senator Lidia Thorpe, continuing his term as an Independent.

On 14 November 2023, following a party preselection defeat, Liberal Party MP Russell Broadbent left the party to sit on the crossbench.

On 4 December 2023, Labor Party MP Peta Murphy died of cancer, leaving Labor with 77 seats.

On 28 February 2024, former Prime Minister and Liberal MP Scott Morrison left parliament.

On 1 March 2024, Labor Senator Linda White died. She was replaced by Lisa Darmanin.

On 2 March 2024, Labor Party candidate Jodie Belyea retained the seat of Dunkley in the 2024 Dunkley by-election.

On 28 March 2024, Senator Tammy Tyrrell quit the Jacqui Lambie Network to sit as an Independent.

On 13 April 2024, Liberal Party candidate Simon Kennedy retained the seat of Cook in the 2024 Cook by-election.

On 19 April 2024, Greens Senator Janet Rice retired. She was replaced by Steph Hodgins-May.

Electoral system

Members of the House of Representatives are elected by instant-runoff voting, which in Australia is known as full preferential voting. Each electorate elects one member.

Senators are elected by single transferable vote and proportional representation. In states senators are elected from state-wide twelve-member districts (although in most cases only six seats are contested at a single election), and in territories from territory-wide two-member districts.

Ballots are counted at least twice, at the polling place and, starting Monday night after election day, at counting centres.

Current standings

Parties are listed according their vote share at the last federal election

State of electorates

Redistribution

The Australian Electoral Commission is required, one year after the first sitting day for a new House of Representatives, to determine the number of members to which each State and Territory is entitled. If the number in any state changes, a redistribution will be required in those states. A redistribution will be postponed if it would begin within one year of the expiration of the House of Representatives.

The apportionment determination was made in July 2023 based on the population figures for December 2022. The determination resulted in a reduction of one seat in New South Wales to 46, a reduction of one seat in Victoria to 38 and an increase of one seat in Western Australia to 16. The total number of seats in the House of Representatives will decrease from 151 to 150 at the next federal election.

In May and June 2024, the Australian Electoral Commission released its draft proposals for electorate changes, recommending the creation of the Division of Bullwinkel in the outer eastern suburbs of Perth, and the abolition of the Division of Higgins in Melbourne's inner south-east (held by Labor's Michelle Ananda-Rajah) and the Division of North Sydney in Sydney's inner north-east (held by teal independent Kylea Tink).

Voter registration

Enrolment of eligible voters is compulsory. Voters must notify the AEC within 8 weeks of a change of address or after turning 18. The electoral rolls are closed for new enrolments or update of details about a week after the issue of writs for election. Enrolment is optional for 16 or 17-year-olds, but they cannot vote until they turn 18, and persons who have applied for Australian citizenship may also apply for provisional enrolment which takes effect on the granting of citizenship.

Election date

The election of senators must take place within one year before the terms expire for half-Senate elections, so that the writs for a half-Senate election cannot be issued earlier than 1 July 2024. Since campaigns are for a minimum of 33 days, the earliest possible date for a simultaneous House/half-Senate election is Saturday, 3 August 2024. The latest that a half-Senate election could be held must allow time for the votes to be counted and the writs to be returned before the newly elected senators take office on 1 July 2025. The previous election's writs were returned on 24 June 2022, 34 days after the 2022 federal election. Using this time frame, the last possible date for a half-Senate election to take place is Saturday 24 May 2025.

A double dissolution (a deadlock-breaking provision to dissolve both houses of parliament) cannot be called within six months before the date of the expiry of the House of Representatives. That means that any double dissolution of the 47th Parliament would have had to be granted by 25 January 2025. Allowing for the same stages indicated above, the last possible date for a double dissolution election would be 29 March 2025. This can only occur if a bill that passes the House of Representatives is rejected by the Senate twice, at least three months apart.

The constitutional and legal provisions which impact on the choice of election dates include:

• Section 12 of the Constitution says: "The Governor of any State may cause writs to be issued for the election of Senators for that State."
• Section 13 of the Constitution provides that the election of senators shall be held in the period of twelve months before the places become vacant.
• Section 28 of the Constitution says: "Every House of Representatives shall continue for three years from the first sitting of the House, and no longer, but may be sooner dissolved by the Governor-General." Since the 47th Parliament of Australia opened on 26 July 2022, it will expire on 25 July 2025.
• Section 32 of the Constitution says: "The writs shall be issued within ten days from the expiry of a House of Representatives or from the proclamation of a dissolution thereof." Ten days after 25 July 2025 is 4 August 2025.
• Section 156(1) of the CEA says: "The date fixed for the nomination of the candidates shall not be less than 10 days nor more than 27 days after the date of the writ." Twenty-seven days after 4 August 2025 is 31 August 2025.
• Section 157 of the CEA says: "The date fixed for the polling shall not be less than 23 days nor more than 31 days after the date of nomination." Thirty-one days after 31 August 2025 is 1 October 2025, a Wednesday.
• Section 158 of the CEA says: "The day fixed for the polling shall be a Saturday." The Saturday before 1 October 2025 is 27 September 2025, which is the latest possible date for the lower house election.

Retiring members

Labor

• Maria Vamvakinou MP (Calwell, Vic) – announced retirement on 9 June 2024
• Senator Louise Pratt (WA) – announced retirement on 20 February 2024

Liberal

• Karen Andrews MP (McPherson, Qld) – announced retirement on 18 April 2023
• Warren Entsch MP (Leichhardt, Qld) – announced retirement on 9 April 2023
• Ian Goodenough MP (Moore, WA) – lost preselection on 16 February 2024
• Nola Marino MP (Forrest, WA) – announced retirement on 4 December 2023
• Gavin Pearce MP (Braddon, TAS) – announced retirement on 11 June 2024
• Rowan Ramsey MP (Grey, SA) – announced retirement on 25 March 2024
• Senator Gerard Rennick (Qld) – lost preselection on 8 July 2023
• Senator Linda Reynolds (WA) – announced retirement on 12 February 2024

Nationals

• Mark Coulton MP (Parkes, NSW) – announced retirement on 25 March 2024

Opinion polling

Primary vote

Two-party preferred

See also

• List of political parties in Australia

Notes

References